WHY DO I EXPECT JAPAN TO COLLAPSE ?   by Michio Morishima March 1999, 190 x 138 mm, 205 pp., 1,600- Since the 1990s, the Japanese economy has failed to achieve the satisfactory growth it had previously enjoyed. Does this present situation continue? Will the economy eventually recover to its previous levels of performance? Or does this actual state signal the beginning of Japan's collapse? This is an urgently-issued book, as a sequel to Why Has Japan “Succeeded”?(1982), where the author discusses the causation between “failure”and “success,” employing his own unique methodology on Japanese economy. Morishima sets his sights on the middle of the next century - 2050 - and examines whether Japan will be in a state of collapse by this point in time, then describes the reasons behind his projections. A society's foundation is its people, who serve as a backbone to the whole body of the society. Therefore, to determine the future state of any society, we must first consider how the populations will have evolved, and what type of structures are feasible, based on the nature of the population at that time. And in such population-based view of history, what plays the most vital role is education. If the quality of the humanistic foundation is inferior, the efficiency of the economy will suffer accordingly, and Japan's collapse will become a near certainty. Morishima analyzes Japan at a critical point against the backdrop of the financial, industrial, educational, and spiritual collapse. He sees the collapse firstly in politics and predicts this country to have lost its influence in the international society by the mid-next century. On the basis of such prediction, Morishima expects the collapse of Japan and, as the only way Japan can ward off this disaster, he advances the formation of a north-east Asian community. Will Japan participate in the creation of the “constructive community” comprising of north-east Asian countries, namely, Japan, China, the two Koreas, Taiwan, and Ryukyu (Okinawa), after all? Contents Foreword Chapter 1: Methodology of Prediction   Origins of My “Theory of Japan's Collapse” / Refutation Against Ryutaro Komiya and Hugh Patrick / Why They Don't Face Up to the Theory of Collapse / My Methodology Chapter 2: Fragmentation of Population   Long-Term Population Forecasts / Effects of Post-War Educational Reforms/ Role of Education / Significance of the Early 1990s / Tragedy of Apathy Toward Social Trends Chapter 3: Collapse in Spirit   Deficiencies of Elitism / Corruption of Work Ethic / Leniency and the Dissolution of Thoughts / My Latest Experience in Japan / Foundations in 2050 / Pareto-Type Social Analysis / Foundation Lacking in Vitality Chapter 4: Collapse in Finance   Factors in Japan's Failure / Japanese Land Worship / Backgrounds of Land Bubble / Worst Business Administration / Japanese Big Bang Chapter 5: Collapse in Industry   Liaison Between Finance and Industry / “All in the Same Club” - Japanese System / Corruption of Post-War Industrial System / Deficiency of Political Innovation / Restoration of Ruined Economic System / One Individual Experience in the Great Depression / Why Japan Grounded to a Standstill in the 90s Chapter 6: Collapse in Education   Ratio of Admission to College and Quality of Higher Education / Another Difficulty- Increase in People with Higher Academic Qualifications / My Proposals for Educational Reform / Can Japan recover? Chapter 7: Sole Redress   Necessity for Common Understanding of History / North-east Asian Community Chapter 8: Obstacles to Redress   “True History- Hideki Tojo” / Nightmarish Story that It Was a Righteous War / What Kind of Country Is Japan? / Is Peculiar Japanese History Feasible ? / Never Reverse Wheels of History Addendum: Dark Area Social Sciences Have not Explored About the Author Born in 1923. Graduated from Faculty of Economics, Kyoto University in 1946. Served as professor at Osaka University, visiting professor at the University of Essex, and Sir John Hicks Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. Currently professor emeritus of London University and Osaka University. Made considerable impact with original modern-economics interpretation of Marx's economic growth theories. Author of Britain and Japan; Britain in Thatcher Reign; Requirements for Politician; School, Educational Background, and Life; Modern Economics as Thoughts; Japan's Choice; Why Has Japan “Succeeded”? (Cambridge University Press), and many others. Member of the British Academy and the Academia Europa. Currently resides in Great Britain.