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| @ | Envisioning
a Peace in Korea: Can Japan Do It? SAKAMOTO Yoshikazu, Professor Emeritus, The University of Tokyo. |
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| @ | @ | Uploaded on 1 March 2001. | |||
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I had never given up the hope for unification of Germany, but I never believed that it would happen in my own lifetime. Richard von Weizsacker, former President of Germany
I thought I would never be able to step on North Korean soil in my
life. Kim Dae Jung, President of the Republic of Korea
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The
gsunshine policyh: taking a risk for peace
The North-South summit held in June 2000 was a historic event which
marked the beginning of the end of the Cold War on the Korean peninsula.
There are likely to be clashes and setbacks over specific issues in the
future, but this need not be a cause for alarm as far as the basic
agreements reached at the summit meeting are concerned. What is most significant here is that this historic turn toward tension reduction was brought about by a series of political initiatives; initiatives rooted in the courageous decision and creative vision of a leader committed to peace and reconciliation, fully accountable to his people. Just as in the case of the gOstpolitikh of West German Chancellor Willy Brandt, which contributed to the East-West detente, and the gdiplomacy of new thinkingh of Mikhail Gorbachev, then the Secretary General of the Soviet Communist party, which led to the end of the Cold War, a set of political initiatives made the gimpossibleh possible, giving birth to the meeting of the two Korean leaders. First of all, it was the "sunshine policy" pursued by
South Korea's President Kim Dae Jung which facilitated a change in North
Korea's reactions. President Kimfs initiative was taken with great
perseverance, while putting his own political fortune at stake. This
brings to mind his visit to Japan in October 1998. For his predecessors,
the most sensitive question at hand when making a state visit to Japan was
how to ensure a commitment in advance that the Japanese government would
express its sincere official apology for the repressive colonial
domination. President Kim, however, made it clear that this was a question
for the Japanese to resolve on their own, and decided to refrain from
setting any preconditions regarding this issue prior to his visit. To do
so without clear knowledge of Japan's reaction was a risk for him, in
terms not only of foreign policy but also of domestic politics where
public opinion was distrustful of Japan. Through this unilateral
initiative, however, he succeeded in winning the cooperative response of
the Japanese government and elevated bilateral relations to a new level of
mutual understanding and collaboration. With respect to North Korea, President Kim continued to provide
food and fertilizer aid and encouraged private companies to invest in the
DPRK, resisting domestic critics who claimed such actions would only
benefit the North. On March 9, 2000, President Kim proposed in his
"Berlin Declaration" that the South Korean government would help
build the North's infrastructure, including highways, ports, railroads,
power plants and communications facilities. These initiatives no doubt
enabled the North to accept top-level talks with the South. It is true that providing economic assistance to North Korea has strategic implications, given its severe economic
predicament. But a country in serious economic need does not necessarily
opt for a diplomatic policy which gives priority to economic
considerations. This was clearly the case with North Korea in the 1990's.
Suffering from prolonged famine and lacking aid from the former Soviet
Union, the DPRK built up its military power for the defense of this
economically troubled country. Internationally, the leadership felt the
need to defend the isolated communist country from hostile powers.
Domestically, Kim Jong Il seemed to be in need of the support of
the military to consolidate his newly inherited power. One of the focal points of the "sunshine policy" was to
prevent the North from becoming a militarized state that was closed
precisely because of its impoverishment, and induce it to change its
stance into a more open nation with a priority given to economic
development. Yet,
it is extremely difficult to gather accurate information on the power
structure of North Korea. In my paper titled, gEnvisioning the End of
the Korean Cold War,h presented at a conference organized by the Korea
Christian Academy in 1999, I tried to suggest what the United States,
South Korea and Japan could do externally in order to promote détente
even in the absence of reliable information on the internal power
structure of North Korea. Despite this constraint, it was not difficult
for me to take note of the following developments. First, Secretary General Kim Jong Il waited until September 1998,
after an unusually long mourning period, to amend the constitution and
become Chairman of the National Defense Commission. It would appear that
Kim Jong Il, who has no military credentials, needed that much time to
secure his authority over the military. Second, in 1999, he gradually began to shift the focus of his
"on-the-spot instructions" from military units to farms and
factories, suggesting an increasing emphasis on the economy. Third, in a 1995 article, Kim Jong Il expressed a strongly critical
view on the failures of the communist regimes in the Soviet Union and
Eastern Europe, as well as the economic reforms pursued by China and
Vietnam. More recently, however, he has begun to tone down his criticism
of China, and in March 1999, made public an unprecedented visit to the
Chinese embassy in Pyongyang. Therefore, his visit to China in May 2000,
did not come as a surprise to me, nor did his support of Chinafs
economic reform. Rather, what did prove to be a more interesting sign of change was
the way in which China, taking an initiative as an active intermediary,
promptly made his visit known to the United States, South Korea and Japan,
supposedly with his approval. Taking these undercurrents into consideration, Kim Dae Jung
continued to take the initiative with his "sunshine policy", and
North Korea, in turn, responded through a turnabout by Kim Jong Il. The
North-South summit meeting was what lay at the merging point of these two
extraordinary decisions made by two leaders: President Kim, motivated by
his conviction that the Korean people should never again engage in
fratricide, and Chairman Kim, struggling for the survival of his regime
and his country. One other initiative which needs to be considered here is the
so-called "Perry process" undertaken by the US government. In
May 1999, former US Defense Secretary William Perry, as part of his
mission to advise President Clinton on the US policy toward North Korea
which the United States regarded as a grogue stateh, made an
unprecedentedly high-level, but rather quiet and even
field-research-style, visit to Pyongyang. Upon his return, Perry commented that he appreciated the warm
hospitality extended by the DPRK government which showed a willingness to
continue dialogue with the United States. It seems that his visit had been
worthwhile, as it enabled him to understand what the other side was
thinking. It is probable that the North Koreans also welcomed the visit,
and were given an opportunity to understand what the United States was
thinking. Thus, Perry initiated dialogue between the two governments on a
higher level, based on the idea that the United States should recognize
the viability of the North Korean regime. Along these lines, the United
States responded with an easing of economic sanctions when North Korea
indicated on June 19, 2000, that it would continue to freeze its missile
tests. As we have seen, the initiatives taken by the two Koreas, China and
the United States, paved the way for the North-South summit and détente
on the Korean Peninsula. By now, it should be clear that there is one
actor missing here: Japan. |
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