[Editor's Note]

A general election was held on June 25, 2000, the first since October 1996. It was called by Prime Minister MORI Yoshiro, whose premiership had been fixed by LDP leaders behind closed doors in April 2000 after his predecessor OBUCHI Keizo was seized with a sudden illness, which ultimately took his life in May. Due to the dubious legitimacy of Mr. Mori's succession and his repeated, controversial remarks, public support for the LDP had declined sharply and some expected that the opposition led by the Democratic Party of Japan might win the election. However, the result was quite different, as the ruling coalition of the LDP, the New Komeito (Clean Government Party) and the New Conservative Party secured an absolute, stable majority. This article analyzed this result immediately after the election. In November 2000, a phalanx of LDP Diet members almost turned their back on the party and supported an opposition party no-confidence motion against the Mori Cabinet. This shows how shaky a footing the Mori Cabinet is on, notwithstanding the electoral victory in June 2000.

According to polls released by the media before the election, the Japanese electorate had a strong sense of distrust of Prime Minister Mori and the ruling coalition, consisting of the LDP, the New Komeito and the New Conservative Party. Where has this gone? As a result of the general election, the Liberal Democrats have lost a large number of seats in the House, but the ruling coalition has secured an absolute, stable majority with 271 seats in total, which was tantamount to an approval of the thoroughly conservative platforms of the ruling parties, and hence the status quo. As a consequence, Mr. Mori's premiership has been secured, and the framework of the coalition government maintained. In other words, there was no change in the composition of the present administration.

The professed objective in introducing the dual electoral system for the House of Representatives, consisting of single-member constituencies combined with proportional representation, which was  regarded as the pillar of political reform, was to make political competition more focused on policy platforms and party organizations rather than individual politicians, and to create the conditions for alternation of power. The enthusiasm with which public opinion supported the introduction of the political reform bills in 1994 certainly reflected the popular expectation for a change of government and reform of the political structure. However, what has been indicated by the latest general election was an approval of the time-worn formula of pork-barrel politics carried out by the coalition government.

Retreat from Reformism into Conservatism

As the date of the general election approaches, it is not unusual for the government to suddenly change its stance and make opportunistic commitments in order to drum up votes. However, the case of the current coalition government was extreme and almost unprecedented in this respect.

The Hashimoto Administration (January 1996-July 1998) had advocated the 'Six Reforms' in areas such as administrative structure, public finance and social security. But this initiative died too quickly, because of the downturn in the economy and the party's defeat in the July 1998 election for the House of Councilors. The Liberal Democrats changed their stance from reform to conservatism. Prime Minister Obuchi (July 1998-April 2000) abandoned Mr. Hashimoto's fiscal readjustment policy altogether, concentrating all his effort instead on economic recovery through lavish government spending. In fact, however, most of these policies practiced under the name of 'economic recovery' were intended to make the outcome of the general election favorable to his party. The jettisoning of reform has been further accentuated under Prime Minister Mori. 

When the Liberal Democrats maintained a one-party administration during the period of high economic growth, they secured votes by distributing growing national revenues to their support organizations. The government bureaucracy kept this mechanism working through budget, laws, regulations and licenses. This LDP-bureaucracy-business triangle was the lifeline for the Liberal Democrats to stay in power. In order for this system to work, a circulatory process was necessary in which constant economic growth generated fiscal resources, whose distribution in turn stimulated further economic growth.

However, the functioning of this system was made impossible by a series of scandals involving politicians including the famous Recruit 'shares-for-favors' case in the late 1980s, as well as the slowdown of economic growth and the globalization of the world economy. The government persisted in its distribution policy despite fundamentally altered conditions, resulting in a public debt of 645 trillion yen.

The Liberal Democrats gave priority to the agricultural and construction sectors in their budget distribution. Since these sectors had relatively low productivity, the distribution failed to result in economic growth. The essence of the political reforms proposed was to destroy such a triangular relationship amongst the government, bureaucracy and industry, but the feeling gets stronger every year that the reforms are paralyzed.

LDP-style politics were expressed most saliently in the latest general election. The Liberal Democrats, despite criticism, resorted to classic pork-barrel tactics in regard to traditional supporters, such as construction corporations and agricultural organizations. The reason behind it was quite simple: independent voters, who account for more than 50 per cent of the electorate, were unreliable. Moreover, if these voters actually went to the polls, they might vote for the Democratic Party of Japan. Therefore, the LDP tried to secure the minimum vote by thoroughgoing pork-barrel politics. But this effort alone would hardly be sufficient to obtain a majority. In order to supplement their votes, the Liberal Democrats made an electoral deal with New Komeito, whose support organization, Sohka Gakkai, could offer quite reliable votes.

Thus, the LDP has completely abandoned its effort to gain the support of broad sectors of the electorate as a truly 'national' party, resigning itself to a new role as the representative of the interests of just one part of the nation. During the election campaign, Prime Minister Mori stated in his speech, 'There are still around forty per cent of the voters who have not yet decided which candidate to vote for. Well, it will be all right if these people just stay in bed saying that they are not interested in the election, but that won't be the case'. It seems that this statement represented his true feeling.